Understanding Try Scorer Markets
Try scorer betting is one of the most exciting NRL markets. There are several ways to bet on who will cross the white stripe. The scoring system keeps the math simple — a try is 4 points — and since tries drive margins, totals and line bets, understanding who scores is the foundation of most NRL analysis.
First Try Scorer (FTS)
Bet on which player scores the first try of the match. Odds are typically high — even favourite players are usually $6.00–$12.00. This is a high-risk, high-reward market with plenty of variance. In 2026's opening round, the Knights' 28–18 Vegas win over the Cowboys produced eight tries; a first-try-scorer bet needed the right name from 34 players on the field — that's the variance you're buying.
Anytime Try Scorer (ATS)
A safer alternative — bet on a player to score at any point during the match. Odds are shorter but your chances improve significantly. A winger at $2.50–$4.00 ATS offers reasonable value for their scoring probability. Because the average NRL match sees 5–7 tries, a team's primary winger scores in roughly one game in three — which is why ATS is the sustainable entry point.
Multi Try Scorer
Some bookmakers offer markets for a player to score 2+ or 3+ tries. These are rare events but offer enormous odds when you nail one. The 2026 season has already produced blowouts — the Storm's 52–4 win over the Eels and the Panthers' 0–68 rout of the Tigers — where multi-try scorers were always live, which is the context to look for: mismatches, not evenly matched games.
Strategies for Picking Try Scorers
1. Target the Wings
Wingers score the vast majority of NRL tries. Target wingers on the side of a team's attacking shape — right-wingers often see more ball on left-to-right attacking shifts. Look at recent try-scoring form of wingers specifically.
2. Exploit Mismatches
If a powerful centre is matched up against a smaller defender, or a fast winger gets space against a slower opponent, the try-scoring chances increase dramatically. Analyse individual matchups before picking.
3. Watch for Set Plays
Most first tries come from structured attacking sets in the first 10–15 minutes. Teams often go to their best plays early. Watch for which players are used as primary strike weapons in early sets.
4. Consider the Weather
Wet weather favours forwards and close-range try scorers. Dry conditions favour outside backs and long-range efforts. Check the forecast before placing your FTS bet.
5. Check Team News
Late changes can open up try-scoring opportunities. A fill-in winger replacing a star defender is a target. A late call-up for a debutant creates uncertainty that can lead to early tries. In Origin windows, club teams missing representative stars reshuffle their edges — and bookmakers sometimes price the old combinations.
First Try Scorer vs Anytime Try Scorer
For casual bettors, anytime try scorer offers better value. The variance on FTS is extreme — even the best FTS bettors hit at well under 20%. ATS selections give you the whole game for your player to find the line, making it a much more sustainable betting strategy. When you do play FTS, prefer it in blowout-shaped matchups where the favourite's early sets are predictable.
Bookmaker Rules to Know
- Dead heat: If two players are joint first try-scorers (rare, via a double try awarded to two players), your stake is reduced proportionally
- No try, no pay: If a match ends 0–0 in a try market, FTS bets are usually refunded; ATS bets lose
- Late withdrawal: If your player is a late scratching, most bookies void that leg (check SGM rules — some void the whole multi)
- Substitutes: Tries scored by players who started on the bench still count for ATS
Track the Data
NRL.com publishes full try-scoring stats for every player. Track each winger's try rate over the last 10 games, their team's attacking direction (left vs right edge), and how many tries come from kicks — a winger who scores 40% of his tries from kick contests is a different bet than one who finishes sweeping moves. Build a simple spreadsheet; after 20 rounds you'll see patterns the market prices slowly.
Blowout Context for 2026
The 2026 season's biggest games show how try scorers spread: the Storm's 52–4 win over the Eels and the Panthers' 68–0 rout of the Tigers produced a wide spread of scorers across both teams. That is exactly why FTS remains a lottery even in mismatches — the first try can come from any edge — while ATS on two or three attackers from the dominant team is the repeatable play.